Page 43 - Proceeding The 2nd International Seminar of Science and Technology : Accelerating Sustainable Innovation Towards Society 5.0

The 2 International Seminar of Science and Technology
nd
“Accelerating Sustainable innovation towards Society 5.0”
ISST 2022 FST UT 2022
Universitas Terbuka
actual data pattern. In Figure. 3, the forecast for the next quarter is
shown by the blue line in the middle of the square where the demand
for gold jewellery for the next quarter tends to decline. Forecasting
using the SES method is usually used for short-term forecasting,
which is used for the next 1-3 months.
Table 5. Forecasting results for the next period.

Based on Table. 5. the results of forecasting the amount of demand
for gold jewellery for the next quarter or the 4th quarter of 2021, which
is 6.0 tons. Forecasting using the SES method tends to have the same
value for forecasting results because the SES method is used for
short-term forecasting.

4 CONCLUSIONS
The highest demand for gold jewellery in Indonesia was in 2018 with
a value of 41.9 tons, an increase of 3.3 tons from the previous year (in
2017). Meanwhile, the lowest gold demand occurred in 2020, which
amounted to 20.9 tons. According to World Gold Council data, the
decline in gold demand in the jewellery sector experienced a
significant decline in the 1st quarter of 2020. The results of forecasting
the demand for gold jewellery using the Random Forest method with
50 trees and the Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha
0.4 both obtained gold demand for the 4th quarter of 2021 to the 4th
quarter of 2022 which continued to decline. The results of forecasting
the demand for gold jewellery using the Random Forest method with
the number of trees, namely 50 and the Single Exponential Smoothing
method using alpha 0.4, both show that gold demand for the 4th
quarter of 2021 to the 4th quarter of 2022 continues to decline. The
results of the analysis show that the Random Forest method produces
a smaller forecast error value of 12.87% compared to the Single
Exponential Smoothing method based on the MAPE value.

22 ISST 2022 – FST Universitas Terbuka, Indonesia
International Seminar of Science and Technology “Accelerating Sustainable
Towards Society 5.0