Page 42 - Proceeding The 2nd International Seminar of Science and Technology : Accelerating Sustainable Innovation Towards Society 5.0

nd
The 2 International Seminar of Science and Technology
“Accelerating Sustainable innovation towards Society 5.0”
ISST 2022 FST UT 2022
Universitas Terbuka
Table 4. The alpha value and error of the Single Exponential
Smoothing method.

Based on Table. 4 obtained the smallest MAPE, RMSE, and MSE
values with values of 20.626, 1.971 and 3.885, respectively, using an
alpha value of 0.4. The MAPE value of 20.63% is in the descent or
sufficient category. Therefore, the SES method can be used in
predicting the amount of demand for Indonesian gold jewellery. The
following is a graph of forecasting results using the SES method and
an alpha value of 0.4.

Figure 3. Graph of forecasting results for Single Exponential
Smoothing.
From Figure. 3, The black line shows the actual data, and the green
line shows the predicted data, while the Gray square that has a blue
centre line is the forecast data for the next quarter. Forecasting data
are sufficient to follow the data pattern or not much different from the

ISST 2022 – FST Universitas Terbuka, Indonesia 21
International Seminar of Science and Technology “Accelerating Sustainable
Towards Society 5.0